September 17, 2024
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Hidden patterns reveal trends in Nobel Prize science
The time lag between discovery and award shows how the Nobel Prize rewards science.
Meteorologist Syukuro Manabe was co-recipient of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work in the 1960s modeling the movement of gases within atmospheric columns. His six decades of research proved to be the foundation of the computer models that scientists use today to interpret and predict climate change.
While Manabe’s time to receive the prize was particularly long, there is often a significant gap between the award of a Nobel Prize and the first achievement for which it is awarded — the average in each category is 20 years. Scientific American “It takes time to prove that something has influence beyond mere curiosity,” says John Ioannidis, a Stanford professor who has studied the distribution and influence of Nobel prizes. While the Nobel Prizes are not representative of science as a whole, they reveal the trends and motivations that shape major scientific fields.
As Nobel Prize season approaches, we wondered which areas of science are most celebrated and whether there are any visible patterns between research and awards. Using official Nobel Prize summaries and statements, we broke down the awards into unique subject-specific categories and dated the research with a timeline that shows trends.
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A clear pattern is the increasing number of cases where a prize has multiple laureates. Each prize can be shared among up to three living researchers, but as science becomes more collaborative, this rule is becoming increasingly restrictive. Ioannidis suggests that this rule could even skew what gets highlighted as the most important research going forward, if the Nobel Committee cannot choose just three people responsible for a result. “It’s not easy to pick very outstanding people from the whole world.”
