Flood risk mapping also needs to be improved, Bodke said. We need to characterize vulnerabilities in a comprehensive way. This means considering the social, economic, physical, institutional and cultural aspects of factors that make communities vulnerable to weather. We need to understand all the factors that put people at higher risk. It’s not just about exposure to extreme weather, it’s about how sensitive you are to extreme weather and how resilient you are. Bodke’s own research shows that most of the literature on vulnerability to natural disasters typically considers only two dimensions: social and economic, while ignoring local institutional and cultural characteristics. I understand.
Regarding the challenges in incorporating maps of flood-prone areas into local decision-making, Bodke said that the European Union does not have a regulatory framework that includes preliminary flood risk assessments and hazard maps on which risks must be calculated. He pointed out that there is. To the public and spilled assets: “There’s a lot of room for improvement. There’s a lot of uncertainty in flood hazard maps.” Partly because flooding is a random process. he explains. Where there has already been a severe flood, it is very likely that another flood will follow, but we do not know whether it will occur in five years or 300 years.
In addition to this, Bodoque explains, there is another problem. The parameters supplied to the risk map are ranges rather than fixed values. You can supply upper, middle, or lower values as required. However, the maps used in Spain and many other countries are deterministic. That is, it shows only floodable and non-floodable areas. In other words, they only see black and white. “We provide a single cartographic output, even though the output for each parameter and range is infinite,” says Bodoque. Uncertainty can be flattened into a deterministic map, creating a false sense of security.
Bodke says this method of creating maps of the probability of risk in flood-prone areas needs to change. This approach would better reflect the uncertainties inherent in flood phenomena. However, this probabilistic model has a high computational cost.
In order to appropriately deal with the risks associated with torrential rains, Bodke emphasizes the importance of making the public aware of the dangers they face. He and his team found that in Spain, people exposed to natural weather processes do not realize that they are at risk, partly because extreme weather events do not occur every year. colleagues discovered.
This low risk awareness can have deadly consequences as it encourages rash decisions in dangerous situations. In response, Bodoque suggests developing communication plans for different audiences. In a paper published in the Journal of Hydrology, which he co-authored, Bodke wrote that while “a technocratic approach to risk management can give people a false sense of security,” it is essential to have an appropriate risk communication strategy. He says it will be easier if it is implemented. Better response to emergency alerts.
This story was originally WIRED (Spanish version) Translated from Spanish.
(Tag translation) Science
