We live in times of uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to society, but many people, especially young people, are facing unprecedented anxiety on a personal level. None of us know what will happen. And we’d better face it. This is your first lesson in making predictions. don’t make predictions. In other words, don’t just speculate about what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty And turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think fast and slow about uncertainty
Uncertainty is a “conscious awareness of ignorance.” It’s a personal relationship with what we don’t know. We may be ignorant of what is happening now and what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two main schools of thought. We can use our quick, unconscious, intuitive reactions, or we can slowly and deliberately solve problems. Most of the time, it’s okay to think about the future quickly, such as when you’re driving a car or choosing a movie to watch. But when it comes to big decisions, it’s better to take your time.
evoke a possible future
The first step to thinking slowly about the future is visualizing how things will unfold. Organizations may use “red teaming” to intentionally think about what can go wrong, creating scenarios that reflect optimistic and pessimistic outcomes. The British Ministry of Defense even employs science fiction writers to bring some serious imagination to possible futures.
As individuals, we adopt a “red team mindset” that consciously criticizes our standard perspective, whether we tend to look on the bright side or expect the worst. You can.
Problems with explaining uncertainty only in words
Vague language about uncertainty is easily misunderstood. It’s easy to say that something “might”, “could”, or even “likely” happen. But what do these words actually mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning a Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to overthrow Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff said there was only a 30 percent chance of success, or a 70 percent chance of failure. I was thinking.
This was reported as a “fair” chance, but they thought it would be interpreted as “not very good”. However, President Kennedy read these words optimistically and authorized the invasion, which was a complete fiasco and pushed Cuba further into Soviet influence.
quantifying our ignorance
Events like the Bay of Pigs disaster encouraged intelligence agencies to match words to rough numbers. For example, if someone in British intelligence claims that an event is ‘likely’, this is officially interpreted to mean that the probability is between 55% and 75%. A similar scale is used in climate science, where a “very likely” event means 90% to 95%.
As individuals, we rank our future possibilities in terms of likelihood and try to give them a rough size, such as saying that getting a particular job is a “2 in 10” event. I might. With a little imagination, you can think of all the possible future trajectories that could pop up like spaghetti. And about 20% of them will get you a job.
What makes a good forecaster?
A “super forecaster” can evaluate good probabilities of the future. “Good” means that (a) the predictions are “adjusted” so if we say “70 percent chance” those events will occur in about 70 percent of cases, and (b) they are ” Because it is “discriminatory,” events that occur tend to be given a high degree of probability. They are usually open to new knowledge, happy to work in teams, have insight into their own thinking and all their biases, have the humility to admit uncertainty, admit mistakes, and change their minds. I am. They are more like Isaiah Berlin’s so-called “foxes” who are willing to adapt to new evidence, rather than “hedgehogs” who stick to a single idea.
recognize the unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortalized “the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns” – things beyond our imagination, things we have never thought of. When we acknowledge this possibility, this is known as “deep uncertainty,” and even a red team mindset cannot even list possible futures. But Rumsfeld didn’t include the “known unknowns,” the assumptions we make without thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions, and this is why we need critical friends to help us get out of the fixed tram.
Be prepared to be surprised
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was camped outside Edinburgh, trying to persuade the Church of Scotland to withdraw its support for Charles II’s return. Cromwell wrote: “So everything you say can definitely agree with God’s word? Consider that in the belly of Christ you might be wrong.” This appeal was ignored, and Cromwell asked Dunbar’s He defeated the Scottish army in battle.
“Cromwell’s Law” means you need to think like a fox and always be humble enough to accept that you could be wrong. Accepting that there is a small chance that you will be wrong allows you to quickly adapt to surprising new information.
role of luck
Sometimes things go well for you, and sometimes things go wrong mainly due to factors outside of your control, namely luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constructive luck: who you were born as, your historical time and place, your parents, your genes, your natural characteristics, your childhood upbringing. This is very important. You have to make the most of the hand you were born with. Situational luck: Being in the right place at the right time, or being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Luck as a result: How things happened at that moment.
But it’s not all out of your control. “Lucky” people take advantage of opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient when things go wrong.
living with uncertainty
Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we’ll get for Christmas, what the outcome of a recorded soccer match will be, or even when we’ll die. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we can react to that perceived ignorance in different ways. Depending on the situation and your personal tolerance for the unknown, you may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful.
Uncertainty cannot be avoided. But if you slow down and think about it a little, you might be able to accept it, be humble, and even enjoy it.
