By 2060, about 1 million Americans could develop some form of dementia each year, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature. natural medicine. The latest projections suggest that approximately 514,000 U.S. adults will be diagnosed with dementia, suggesting a significant and dire increase from the projected annual number of cases in 2020. Dementia is an umbrella term for several neurological conditions that affect memory and cognition.
The new study also showed that the lifetime risk of dementia gradually increases with age. Researchers estimate that the lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 is 42 percent and continues to rise sharply to 56 percent after age 85. Groups at higher lifetime risk (44 to 59 percent after age 55) were black adults, women, and women. people with alleles Apoe e4: This mutation in the gene Apoe, The protein encoding apolipoprotein E increases the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. Although Alzheimer’s disease is the most common cause of dementia, the study focused on all forms.
“We knew that the total lifetime risk would be higher than previous 20-year estimates,” said the study’s senior author and director of the Institute for Optimal Aging, New York University Grossman School of Medicine. Joseph Koresh, founding director of “But we didn’t expect it to reach 42%.”
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Koresh’s team collected medical records from 15,043 people enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), another longitudinal study examining the relationship between heart disease and cognitive health. The study cohort included adults aged 45 to 64 years who did not have dementia at the time of recruitment. Approximately 31% of these were confirmed Apoe e4 carrier.
Most medical experts define dementia as a collection of symptoms, including life-impairing loss of memory, language, and other cognitive functions, caused by the deterioration of brain cells. Koresh said a panel of medical experts assessed the participants’ symptoms and clinical data to arrive at the diagnosis of dementia. Dementia research often relies on medical and death records, as well as on-site neuropsychological testing to measure a person’s mental state and detect signs of cognitive impairment. However, as cognitive function declines, people may forget scheduled visits, Koresh explains. ARIC investigators conducted a comprehensive risk assessment of each participant. For those who missed an in-person visit, the situation was checked by telephone interviews with the person or an “informant,” such as a relative, once a year or every six months. Whenever possible, the researchers corroborated dementia diagnoses from hospital and death records with informants.
In the new study, researchers reported 3,252 cases of dementia and found that after age 55, the chance of developing dementia by age 95 was 42 percent. After age 55, 48% of women were predicted to have an increased lifetime risk compared with 35% of men. After age 55, adults have two copies of: Apoe The lifetime risk for e4 (59 percent) was higher than for people with only one copy (48 percent). At that age, the lifetime risk for someone without a copy of the allele was 39%. The team then used U.S. Census Bureau projections to estimate the annual number of dementia cases from 2020 to 2060.
Koresh said the growing elderly population in the United States is likely a major factor in the increase in dementia rates predicted in the new study. “We see how rapidly (risk) rises as you get older, especially as the population over 85 increases dramatically,” he says. Current life expectancy in the United States is about 75 years for men and 80 years for women, but recent research suggests that global life expectancy will increase by about 5 years from 2022 to 2050.
Nancy Malinsky, a neurologist at Stony Brook Medicine who was not involved in the new study, said she sees a large number of elderly patients in her clinic in need of dementia care. Considering this, he says, this result is not all that surprising. “As the population lives longer, the number of infections will increase significantly,” she says.
The study’s projected increase in dementia cases varies by race. The number of people living with dementia is expected to double annually among white adults. And cases among Black adults are even more staggering, with their risk expected to triple.
Black Americans often have higher rates of heart disease, and some research suggests this may be a risk factor for dementia. Additionally, Black people disproportionately experience medical racism, which often results in delayed diagnosis and missed dementia treatment. Malinsky said the new report’s inclusion of more black participants compared to previous studies may reflect a “potentially more accurate” picture of rising dementia rates. It is said that there is a sex.
Although the study results are consistent with some recent models, other data show a different trajectory. A 2024 Alzheimer’s Association report states that Alzheimer’s disease and other types of dementia in the United States and other high-income countries may have actually declined over the past 25 years.
Professor Malinsky said this reduction could be driven by the development of better treatments for dementia risk factors such as high blood pressure and diabetes, both of which can increase the risk of cerebrovascular damage. . Providing continued education for older adults may also promote learning, which may help people withstand age- and disease-related changes in the brain.
The country’s rapidly growing aging population, driven by longer life expectancies and lower birth rates, could hinder current improvements, Koresh said. He stresses the need to take precautions now, even if you are already over 55. “As you get older, your risk of dementia increases,” he says. “However, a significant portion of this is still preventable if blood vessel health is improved.”
