The good news is that we have accumulated so much protection from past infections and vaccinations that the two most serious indicators — emergency room visits and deaths — have not seen a similar increase. The weekly rate of emergency room visits with diagnosed COVID-19 cases is low, similar to last summer’s outbreak. Deaths are similarly low, but these are only provisional figures from the most recent weeks.
The FDA is firmly on board with its strategy of offering its annual COVID-19 vaccine in preparation for the winter epidemic rather than the summer one. The FDA’s thinking is to encourage Americans to get the flu and COVID-19 vaccines together between September and November, just before the cold-weather respiratory illnesses hit at the same time. The new vaccination ramp-up could blunt the level of severe respiratory illness at a time when the health care system is at highest risk of being overwhelmed.
Seasonality
But whereas seasonal influenza and other respiratory viruses almost universally surge in the winter, the seasonality of COVID-19 has not been a given, and so far, summer waves have occurred just as consistently as winter waves, creating some hiccups in vaccine releases.
Some experts are urging people to get the COVID-19 vaccine in preparation for a summer surge in cases. “Now is the time to get vaccinated as cases surge,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN on Sunday.
However, the only vaccines currently available target last year’s strains (related to the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant), which are already gone and may not offer strong protection against current strains (JN.1 and KP.2 Omicron variants). Even if a vaccine targeting the 2024-25 KP.2 strain is approved by the FDA this week and hits pharmacy shelves next week, it will take two weeks for a single dose to provide full protection. By that time, the summer epidemic will likely have waned. In fact, some regions, including parts of the South and West, appear to have already peaked.
Another thing to consider is the timing to get the most protection from a winter epidemic. Last year, the CDC recommended only one dose of the vaccine for healthy people over the age of 5. Maximum protection from the vaccine lasts for about four months. Getting your annual shot in early September could reduce your protection if COVID-19 peaks again at the end of the year, as it has done in the past two years.
As per the 2023-24 guidelines, people aged 65 and above can get a second COVID-19 booster shot four months after the first dose. People who are moderately or severely immunocompromised can also get a booster dose of the updated COVID-19 vaccine.
This story originally Ars Technica.
