Global cancer deaths are expected to nearly double by 2050, primarily in low- and middle-income countries.
Habtam Bizuaif and his team from the University of Queensland in Australia made the discovery by looking at recent incidence and mortality figures for 36 types of cancer in 185 countries from the World Cancer Observatory database. These rates were then applied to the United Nations Development Programme’s 2050 population projections to predict future cases and deaths.
Researchers predict that the total number of cancer cases worldwide is expected to increase by nearly 77% between 2022 and 2050, representing 20 million cases in 2022 and an additional 15.3 million cases in 2050. It means that the number of people will increase. The number of deaths from cancer worldwide also increased by almost 90% during this period, with 9.7 million people dying from the disease in 2022, and 8.8 million people expected to die from the disease in 2050. It will be.
The biggest increases are expected to occur in countries that rank in the bottom or middle of the United Nations’ human development index, which is based on life expectancy, education levels, and per capita income. In countries with low scores, such as Niger and Afghanistan, cancer incidence and deaths are expected to nearly triple on average by 2050. Meanwhile, countries with very high scores, such as Norway, are projected to see an average increase in infections and deaths of more than 42% and 56%, respectively.
Andrew Chan of Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who was not involved in the study, said this supports other evidence that cancer cases are on the rise. Multiple factors are likely driving this, he says, including people living longer and increasing their risk of cancer. However, this study did not take into account the emergence of new or more effective treatments.
Chan says the least developed countries will probably experience the largest increase due to “the so-called Westernization of the population.” “Some of the habits traditionally thought to be associated with higher cancer risk, such as rising obesity rates and poor diet, are becoming trends in low- and middle-income countries.”
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