Tourists try to cool off in Rome, where heatstroke deaths are expected to increase significantly by 2099
Massimo Varricchia/NurPhoto (via Getty Images)
Researchers predict that there will be an additional 2.3 million temperature-related deaths in Europe’s major cities by 2099 unless further steps are taken to limit and adapt to global warming. are. However, cities in colder northern countries such as the UK will experience fewer temperature-related deaths during this period, as the decrease in cold-related deaths is greater than the increase in heat-related deaths.
“We estimate that there will be some net reduction, but it will be very small compared to the large increases seen in the Mediterranean region,” says Pierre Maslot of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Macero’s team first looked at epidemiological studies on how deaths increase during periods of extreme heat or extreme cold. His team then used these statistical links to estimate how excess deaths would change over the next century under different warming scenarios.
The study covered 850 cities, home to 40 percent of Europe’s population, but not rural areas. This is because statistical connections are stronger in places where many people live in a small area and are exposed to roughly the same conditions.
If cities do not adapt, the ultimate impacts of climate change will increase exponentially as the world warms. In a scenario similar to the current one, excess temperature-related deaths would increase by 50 percent, from 91 per 100,000 people per year in recent years to 136 per 100,000 people per year by 2099.
Macero said adaptation measures such as expanding the use of air conditioners and planting trees in urban centers would reduce this number, but significant adaptation measures would be needed to significantly reduce the population’s vulnerability to heat. It is said that it is necessary. “This is far beyond what we have already observed in many countries around the world.”
The researchers’ estimates are based on average daily temperatures under warming scenarios and do not include the possibility of more extreme heat waves. “We found that this was usually enough to be able to link mortality to temperature,” Macerotto said.
This is the most comprehensive study of its kind to date, he says. This includes many more countries, including France and Germany, suggesting for the first time that temperature-related deaths will increase as the continent warms.
Rising temperatures will have a wide range of impacts, from people’s health to productivity, he says. “Death is only part of the story.”
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