January 13, 2025
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Why is Greenland interested in President Trump? Climate change is only part of the story
The Northern Sea Route and burgeoning mining opportunities may be part of Greenland’s appeal to President-elect Donald Trump, but they also come with their own challenges.
A container ship sails among icebergs at the port of Narsak in southern Greenland.
President-elect Donald Trump speaks passionately about countries such as Greenland, the world’s largest island. “Greenland is a wonderful place and its people will benefit tremendously if it becomes part of our country,” he wrote on the social media network he founded, Truth Social, on January 6. It will be,” he wrote.
Cupik Kleist, the island’s former prime minister, said the remarks came as a surprise to many Americans and even Greenlanders. “I don’t really know what the background is,” he says. But while science offers some hints about President Trump’s motives, particularly whether they are based on the potential for melting ice or other consequences of climate warming, President Trump has or falsely deny that it is related to human activity.
First, some background. Greenland’s population is less than 58,000, about one-tenth the population of Wyoming, the state with the least population, or only a few thousand more than the population of the U.S. territory of the Northern Mariana Islands. Greenland, once a Danish colony, is now internally autonomous but remains under Danish control over matters such as financial policy, foreign affairs and security.
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And these issues become even more complex as climate change accelerates, putting the Arctic at the center of the world’s attention. Melody Brown Barkins, who works on Arctic and global science policy and science diplomacy at Dartmouth College, said Greenland is “in a very strategic location in the Arctic for a variety of interests.”
Perhaps the most commonly cited aspect of this strategic location comes from the humble source of international shipping routes. It has been argued that melting Arctic ice would make the region easier for ships to navigate, creating shorter routes for moving cargo between population centers. And indeed, that trend appears to be progressing. According to the Intergovernmental Arctic Council, the number of unique vessels entering the Arctic increased by 37% between 2013 and 2023.
But the promise of a polar route may be overstated, says Barkins. “I think this big idea of sending all the ships on these new routes to save money is a little strange,” she says. Especially given how difficult the situation in the polar oceans is, and continues to be. “We can say there will be less ice, but there will be more ice drifting around to put holes in ships,” she says.
In September 2023, when Arctic sea ice was at its lowest point of the year, fewer than 1,800 ships entered the region. This accounts for less than 2 percent of the world’s ships and 63 percent of the annual Arctic ship traffic. Additionally, fishing vessels outnumbered cargo vessels throughout the year. Taken together, these numbers suggest that despite recent growth in Arctic shipping, opportunities remain limited, as Barkins suggests. “The seasons are poor and the seas are very difficult,” she said of these northern seas, noting that the region still lacks maritime infrastructure such as ports.
Anne Merrild, a resource management professor at Denmark’s Aalborg University who grew up in Greenland, said its limited infrastructure complicates the second story often cited as a reason for interest in Greenland: mineral extraction. He also says that there is. The highly desirable mineral is rich in rare earth metals and other materials that may be particularly useful in renewable energy technologies such as storage batteries and windmill magnets.
But Merrild says that, as outsiders imagine, these minerals are buried beneath Greenland’s ice sheets or frozen out of reach of would-be miners. He points out that this is not the case. Much lies along the ice-free coast, but firmly buried underground, awaiting export infrastructure, Greenlandic political will, and foreign commercial partnerships. Despite President Trump’s comments, Merrild said her study does not show much U.S. commercial interest in the island’s minerals. Nevertheless, she and Kleist believe that given the right conditions, Greenlanders would be willing to allow mining as a way to diversify their economy beyond fishing.
“All of these things have problems,” Barkins said, discussing shipping lanes, rare earth mining, and President Trump’s interest in annexing other governments’ lands. If national security were a concern, the United States has had the right to operate military outposts in Greenland since the mid-20th century. These outposts include the site of the infamous ballistic missile, which was abandoned in 1966, produced more than 47,000 gallons of radioactive waste, and is still buried under an ice sheet, as well as the site of the currently operational ballistic missile. Contains a single Space Force base.
Greenland may not be widely thought of as a powerful country, but it does have real political ties to Denmark and other European countries, as well as long historical ties to Canada. Trump’s apparent interest in the island could even give Greenlanders more leverage in these international conversations, Merrild speculates.
And while Greenland and Denmark have ongoing discussions about the possibility of independence for the island, it is unlikely that Greenlanders will ultimately sever ties with one suzerain and voluntarily accept another. Trump’s threats to use economic or military force are particularly problematic because of the lack of security, Christ said. “That’s way beyond what’s acceptable,” he says. “We’re not simply going to do it in 2025.”
