October 25, 2024
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Here are the rumors and misinformation to watch out for on Election Day
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, we can expect many false claims, including false claims about mass voting by non-citizens and “suspicious vans” outside polling places, that need to be quickly refuted, say misinformation experts. the house says
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This year’s US presidential election is unprecedented, with a last-minute change in Democratic candidates and an assassination attempt on Republican candidate Donald Trump. As anxiety over the results mounts and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results linger, intense rumors about voting and the processes involved in counting votes are poised to explode.
Using ongoing social media research conducted at the University of Washington Center for Public Information in Seattle, where I co-direct, my colleagues and I identify rumors spreading across both Democratic and Republican online networks in real time. You can. We see how election rumors emerge as events unfold, often combining first-hand information such as photos and videos with pre-existing narratives, such as non-US citizens voting in large numbers. Understanding how election events combine with partisan metaphors can make rumors more predictable (ES Spiro and K. Starbird) science problems. technology. 39(3), 47-49; 2023). Here are three types of rumors that election deniers can expect to rely on as Election Day approaches.
False claims and conspiracy theories about widespread voting by non-citizens have been a major theme in this election. For example, we have conducted video interviews on social media platforms such as Tiktok and Instagram with people on the street purportedly admitting that non-citizens are registering, planning to vote, or have voted. I’ve seen a few. Some videos use selective editing or inaccurate subtitles to create a false impression. In other cases, interviewees admitted that they gave incorrect answers due to concerns, for example, not wanting strangers to know that they were not citizens.
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We’ve seen this playbook before. Shortly after taking office in January 2016, then-President Trump claimed that the popular vote had been sacrificed by the votes of 3 million to 5 million illegal immigrants. However, there is no evidence that large numbers of noncitizens vote illegally in the United States. A 2016 study of 42 jurisdictions estimated that around 30 of 23.5 million votes (0.0001%) were cast by non-citizens (see go.nature.com/3nuhdzo). But despite these extremely low numbers, this rumor has remained particularly persistent this year, coinciding with a widespread rise in anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The second type of rumor relates to allegations of bias in election administration. Because U.S. elections are decentralized, things can go wrong at any point. Local errors can also be exploited to mislead election officials by incorrectly assigning malicious intent, overlooking remedies, or exaggerating impacts.
Registration forms and ballots may be mailed to the wrong person or address. A candidate’s name may be misspelled due to a design error on the ballot. For example, about 250 electronic ballots that Palm Beach County, Florida, emailed to military and overseas voters in late September misspelled Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz as “Tom”. Waltz” was written on it. Although the mistake was quickly corrected, several Democratic-leaning social media users shared the story as an example of a Republican conspiracy.
In these cases, people often share photos, videos, and first-person accounts, which can spread widely online. The Trump campaign and several partisan political organizations have trained “election integrity” volunteers and set up reporting infrastructure, including through text messages and online forms, to gather evidence.
Such information can be fed into the rumor machine. Social media platforms are poised to facilitate the rapid spread of political rumors, including a whole theater of influencers who work with their audiences to synthesize “evidence” that fits existing narratives.
During the vote counting period, claims of “suspicious” actors or objects may arise. For example, a grainy photo might show someone rolling a “suspicious device” to a counting facility. Videos and eyewitness accounts of white vans ostensibly filled with ballots from non-citizen voters arriving at polling places are likely to be posted. Each rumor helps build a larger narrative: something is wrong, someone is cheating, and the results cannot be trusted.
Such tactics were widely deployed to contest the results of the 2020 US presidential election. In fact, the equipment in the box turned out to belong to a photographer from a local news station in Detroit, Michigan. The white van was a rental vehicle regularly used by election officials to transport ballots from polling places to vote-counting centers.
Despite all these rumors, actual footage is being twisted into a false narrative. Those who stand on the side of truth and information integrity have one advantage this time. I’ve seen this script before. Researchers have a better understanding of the online dynamics surrounding these rumor processes, so they can report them quickly. Our team remains dedicated to providing the conceptual framework and real-time analysis that helps identify and resolve emerging rumors.
Our hope is that these insights can help election officials develop rapid response plans. Journalists can better inform their audiences. And the public becomes aware of false rumors and political manipulation.
This article is reprinted with permission. first published October 22, 2024.
