Penalties It was invented in England on 14th February 1891. In the final moments of an FA Cup quarter-final between Notts County and Stoke City, a County defender stopped a shot on the goal-line with his hand. Stoke were awarded a free kick just centimetres from the goal-line and the goalkeeper was standing directly in front of the ball, as was perfectly legal at the time. The Stoke players could do nothing but kick the ball straight at them and watched their shot be blocked in a hilarious situation.
On June 2, 1891, at a meeting of the International Football Association Board in Glasgow, the Football Association of Ireland tabled a motion for new penalty kick rules. The Board approved it, and decades of anguish and joy were born. In a way. The original rule stated that a player could kick the penalty “from any point within 12 yards of the goal line,” and the keeper could move forward at least six yards to prevent it. But over time, the rule was tweaked and refined to become the rule we know, love, and hate today.
A penalty kick has about a 70% chance of being successful. At the 2022 World Cup, 22 of the 29 penalties awarded during the match were successful (76%). Before this year’s Euros, 88 penalties had been awarded in the tournament, with 62 successful (70%). Penalty shootouts, introduced at the 1976 Euros and 1978 World Cup, have a similar success rate. In World Cup shootouts, 222 of 320 penalties have been successful (69%). In Euro shootouts, the success rate is a little higher, with 178 of 232 attempts (77%).
But why must penalties be taken from 12 yards? The reason is simple: because the FA decided it in 1891, and this decision has probably never been changed. Because successful completion of 7 out of 10 penalties offers a good mix of risk, reward and drama.
Moving the ball closer or further away tips the odds too far in one direction. As John Wesson pointed out, The Science of FootballTaking air resistance into account, a “penalty” ball traveling at 80 miles per hour and perfectly aimed at the top corner of the goal could theoretically beat a goalkeeper from 35 yards away. At 10 yards or closer to the goal, the chances of scoring increase steadily; at 3 yards, it’s nearly 100 percent.
It seems coincidental, but 12 yards is exactly the sweet spot: if enough penalties are awarded, skill and good placement are rewarded, if enough penalties are prevented, the goalkeeper’s good guesses, research and agility are rewarded. Of the 88 European Championship match penalties awarded before the 2024 tournament, only 18 have been prevented. England’s Jordan Pickford is one of several goalkeepers who use the past behaviour of penalty takers and their preferred goal placements to predict their future choices, then bottle this data for reference.
For a striker to rely on physical force to take the perfect penalty kick, two factors are crucial: speed and direction. A goalkeeper has about a third of a second to save a ball traveling at 80 mph. This is close to reaction time, so the only chance of making a save is to correctly guess where the ball is going to go. And this is where positioning becomes important. A 2012 study by the University of Bath found a “diving envelope” that any keeper can cover by pushing with maximum force in any direction. You have a 50 percent chance of scoring within the diving envelope. You have an 80 percent chance of scoring outside the diving envelope.
