Hurricane Milton turns toward Florida as a Category 5 storm

Florida continues to suffer damage from Hurricane Helen, preparing for second major storm

Megan Bartels

Editor’s note (10/7/24): This story will be updated as the situation develops.

Parts of Florida are still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Helen less than two weeks ago, but preparations are well underway for a second devastating storm, Hurricane Milton. There is.

Milton is currently a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of up to 174 mph off the coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. It appears to be rapidly intensifying and headed straight northeast toward the west coast of Florida, with the worst effects currently centered around Tampa. The first rain is expected to arrive in Florida late October 8, with the storm itself expected to make landfall the next day. It may be the first time in about 100 years that Tampa Bay has been hit by a severe storm, but the region of more than 3 million people is no stranger to hurricane damage.

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“This is a very serious situation,” said Rick Davis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office. “It’s going to affect a lot of people in the state of Florida.”

He said Hurricane Milton is expected to pose a wide range of threats to central and central Florida. Power outages could last up to a week, strong winds, storm surge 8 to 12 feet high, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, up to 15 inches in some places, and the possibility of tornadoes. All of this comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helen, which made landfall more than 100 miles north of Tampa Bay but still caused severe damage to the region, including causing the highest storm surge since records began in 1947. are.

Tampa Bay is inherently vulnerable to storm surges because the offshore water is very shallow and there is nowhere else for the water to go but inland. Additionally, Hurricane Milton is expected to arrive at a right angle, hitting the Florida coast head-on. Arriving at a more oblique angle can push water along the coast, while vertical placement forces water more exclusively inland, causing steeper swells. In the latter case, “water accumulates faster and faster and never recedes,” Davis says.

Additionally, Helen stripped away local protective areas such as sand dunes, leaving the area even more vulnerable to future tsunamis. Overall, Hurricane Milton could cause twice as much storm surge around Tampa Bay as Hurricane Helen.

The region is currently particularly vulnerable to flooding, both along the coastline and inland. Davis said even before Helen hit, the region had an especially wet summer, which saturated the ground and caused rivers to swell. Then came Helen’s sudden downpour and downpour. The storm also blew away debris and pushed sand into the area’s storm drains, making the area less able to absorb water.

Some details of Hurricane Milton’s arrival are still uncertain. There is still time for the storm’s wind strength and exact path toward Florida to change. Hurricane strength is particularly unpredictable. That’s because hurricanes go through a process called rapid intensification. Meanwhile, the storm’s fastest sustained wind speeds will increase by at least 55 mph over a 24-hour period.

Hurricane Milton blew that definition away. “We went from Category 1 to Category 5 in 18 hours,” says Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany. “It’s a really scary situation.”

As of noon EDT on October 7, the storm’s maximum sustained winds were blowing at 275 mph. The wind speed the previous morning was only 105 mph. Climate change is expected to increase the number of rapidly intensifying storms.

Another concern is that scientists are already seeing signs that Hurricane Milton is building a new eyewall, a strong wind that forms the center of the storm surrounding an existing core. This process can cause the original eyewall to collapse within a day, making way for the new structure and allowing storm clouds and damage to cover more ground. “The real concern with this type of eyewall replacement cycle is that it increases the wind field of the storm,” Corbosiello said.

But those details are unlikely to significantly change the severity of the danger the area experiences, Davis said. Tampa Bay is also known to be particularly vulnerable to severe hurricanes, which typically occur only in the surrounding areas. “We’ve been hit by storms over and over and over and over again,” Davis said. However, the last time a major hurricane hit the area was in 1921, and there has been no direct hurricane hit since 1946. Milton is likely to buck that trend.

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, cross the state and then cross the Atlantic Ocean. Bermuda may be affected through the weekend, but the storm is not expected to affect any U.S. communities beyond Florida.

But the risks are very real in Florida. “We want people to take this storm more seriously than any other storm we’ve had,” Davis said. “This is going to be a storm people will never forget.”

Corbosiero echoes that concern, especially considering the fact that Milton is on Helen’s heels and the damage it will do. “This really has the potential to be the worst hurricane disaster in U.S. history,” she says. “It could very well be a potentially catastrophic situation, especially if it hits Tampa and very populated areas along the west coast (of Florida).”