Is cleaner air accelerating global warming more than expected?

James Hanssen, the most well -known climate scientist, has doubled the impact on the climate of air pollution in the 1980s. I did.

“Humanity made bad transactions when using aerosol to offset almost half of greenhouse gas warming.

However, other researchers say that this conclusion is based on unstable foundation, but it is not yet known how much reduction in air pollution has contributed to global warming. Hansen’s conclusion is “Hovering the top edge of what is plausible,” says Michael Diamond of Florida State University.

The recorded spike of the global average temperature in 2023 and 2024 has spured the debate on whether the pace of global warming is accelerating faster than expected. The temperature of the greenhouse gas and the global warming of the Pacific Ocean have increased the majority of the temperature, but other unknown contributors have raised higher temperatures than they can explain only by these factors.

Hansen and his colleagues had previously linked the speed of accelerating with the decrease in air pollution. Currently, they are providing new analysis that claims that a decrease in air pollution can explain the temperature of temperature in the past two years. Both of the air pollution aerosol reflects sunlight directly from the earth and interacts with the clouds. This is also related to heat.

Researchers are particularly focused on the effects of 2020 regulations that reduce harmful sulfur used in transport fuel. Sudden deterioration of air pollution against the ocean provides an experimental unintended experiment and can make the aerosol’s impact on the climate more accurately.

Hansen and his colleagues looked at the busy Pacific transport corridor, estimated this effect, and measured the change in solar radiation absorbed by planets in these regions as air pollution decreased. From this, they estimate that the total change in transportation aerosol increased the imbalance of the earth’s energy by 0.5 per square meter. This is almost the same as the global warming effect of the world’s 10 years of today’s level.

They discovered that additional warming was enough to explain the unknown heat seen in the past two years. But its meaning is wider. That also means that the cooling effect of air pollution hides the total range of the global warming effect of greenhouse gases. In other words, the warming, which has been experienced so far, does not have a complete impact on our emissions.

Hansen and his colleagues warn that this means that the climate is much more sensitive than the level of greenhouse gas levels. As a result, they argue that the world is approaching the climate turning point, which is approaching more quickly, such as the deceleration of the main Atlantic current and the collapse of the Southwest Pole. To fight this, they say they need to be more serious about how to cool the planet with interventions like Solaragio Engineering.

However, the number of 0.5 watts per square meter at the core of the new analysis is much higher than other estimated values ​​of the change in shipment emissions. But he says it is not completely unbelievable.

This number is assumed that NASA’s Gavin Schmidt is due to changes in transportation aerosol, not a change in air pollution from China or natural vibration, but a change in transport aerosol. It is “overestimated”.

Aerosol changes may not be necessary to explain the 2023 spikes, saying, Sibana Priyum Lagraman at the University of Illinoy, the University of Illinoy. He says he needs more work to adjust the various estimated values ​​of the aerosol’s global warming effect.