January 23, 2025
5 I will read the smallest
My arrest of climate protests indicates the problem of “social turning point” theory.
People who want climate behavior to accelerate as a sudden change in our physical world must be prepared for a long and difficult struggle.

A supporter outside the Royal Court in London. Five stopped petroleum activists were sentenced to five or four years in conspiracy to cause public inconvenience on July 18, 2024.
Photo via Kristian Buus/Getty Images
Looking at the bruise of the police officer Nuckles, I explained why I need to take a deep breath and act quickly to avoid the catastrophe in the climate. Standing on a transportation island in London, I wanted to go straight to the court, looking straight into the old -fashioned video camera.
In the cold afternoon of November 2023, I was protesting the non -violent citizen resistance group, JUST STOP OIL (JSO). One of the reasons was research from researchers in the just released British Antarctica. It turns out that the melting control of the Southwest Ice layer has been lost. This contains enough ice to raise the sea surface by 5 meters. Scientists have found at least one glacier passing through the “turning point”.
The turning point in our physical world was not my only motivation. I hoped to speed up the climate after a social turning point, by risking the arrest as a scientific journalist who complies with the law. By doing so, I am a living experiment. This is because researchers do not know that what they need to cause social changes will be quick and irreversible.
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In July last year, he promised not to give a new fossil fuel license, as the left -wing labor party won the British government and had called for protests. However, I am confident that my experience and journalism have reached a “social turning point” on climate behavior. But I think this means that we must be more decisive, rather than giving up in despair. The only way to reduce the severity of the climate catastrophe we face is to keep pushing, even if we do not reach the turning point.
The social chip point is incorporated into the main principles of the JUST STOP STOP Oil’s fellow activists Group Extinction Rebelion (XR), and I am protesting. The group wants to mobilize 3.5 % of the population. This is a person derived from more than 2 million people in the UK, politician Erica Chenawes and Maria Stephen. Comparing the 323 campaigns implemented from 1900 to 2006, we found that non -violent protests such as JSO and XR have more than twice the effect of violent campaigns. When Chenoweth later analyzed the 2013 TEDX talk data, she found that non -violent campaigns, including 3.5 % of the population, have led to long -term political changes.
Such a social chip point theory is one of the four sections of Global TipPing Points Report 2023 reports created by 200 climate researchers from 25 institutions around the world. Viktoria Spaiser, the author of Leeds University, says that there is no doubt that there is no magical number that turns the social turning point. According to reinforcement or opposition, Spaiser told me that each society was different.
My protest day showed the opposition to play in the UK on November 11, a veteran day known as a memory day in my country. A police officer who arrested me said that he had come to the right -wing English defense league thug near CENOTAPH, the London’s main commemorative hall. He was not impressed by my speech. He waited, handcuffed, and was thrown into the police bunch, so he wanted to go home. The protest of the right wing and the lack of governance, shown by police fatigue and poor absorption, felt a typical world that lacks climate behavior.
The Manjana Milkoreit at the University of Oslo has led the global tipping point report section on the management of physical turning points in the global climate change. She is a political scholar, but even social is uncertain, and focuses on the reaction to a physical turning point.
Note that Milkoreit depends on social chip points to promote changes. She says that the approaching catastrophe at the physical turning point has invented a social “from the psychological need of our solution speed.” She is also worried that they are giving “alert” to politicians and other decisions. “They say,” Oh, yes, we know, we don’t have time anymore, but we will get there at a social turning point. ” It is another excuse not to do a difficult job of cariffing now. “
After being arrested, I was in a trial in June 2024, one month before the new British government stopped the license for fossil fuels we were seeking. The judge discovered that I did not commit the intentional obstruction of the highway. Despite my good luck, many other JSO protests have been imprisoned, reducing further protests. This again shows the enemy’s power, and the words of my fellow protest suggest that we are far from lying society to the right climate behavior. Recently, JSO’s Roger Haram and Daniel Show wrote from their cells and wrote from their cells to encourage others to “continue”. It seems that you are more pleased to attach. “
At a wider political level, global chip point reports describe five potential negative social inclination processes. These include the collapse of social norms and bonds, radical and polarized, dispute, financial instability, and people’s displacement. Spaiser says that if a policy that tries to create a social turning point, such as subsidies and solar power incentives, has definitely been achieved, the countries should not withdraw them. It just triggers a negative chip process. Instead, they should continue to drive slowly. “If we do nothing, the system will only slide to negative social chip points,” says Spaiser.
Similarly, protest needs to continue without having a positive turning point. As Milkoreit calls, I am recognizing that I wanted to test social chip point theory to soothe my “psychological needs.” Today, the need for speed is frustrating. A clear units oppose the necessary changes, especially in the plan of shifting to clean energy, opposed the profit of the oil company that led them to reject them.
Thus, I agree with the climate behavior in a difficult place in Haram and the show. It may be attractive to face such a reality and give up in the opposite power, but we must not. We are currently carrying 2.7 degrees warming beyond those that had global temperature before the Industrial Revolution. With the 1.5 -degree C -ki value we are currently currently doing, drought lasts two months around the world. In C twice, it lasts four months. 3rd C, it lasts for 10 months. Regarding climate behavior, winning or losing is not easy. Many of us must oppose the opposition parties, which are only small enough to lower the temperature in the future due to human problems.
This is an article on opinions and analysis, and the views expressed by the author and the author are not always Scientific American.