Eight weeks have passed since Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft launched into orbit toward the International Space Station on an Atlas V rocket. At the time, NASA officials said its two-person crew, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, could return to Earth as soon as June 14, just eight days later.
Sure, Starliner had some issues on its way to the space station, including a helium leak and a thruster failure. But officials tried to downplay them, saying they were relatively minor. “Those are really minor issues that we have to deal with,” Mark Nappi, Boeing’s vice president and manager of commercial crew programs, said at a press conference after the docking. “We’ll get them sorted out before the next mission. I don’t see them as significant issues at all.”
But days passed, and weeks passed, and months passed, as NASA and Boeing continued to study two technical issues. Of those issues, the more immediate concern was the failure of a Multiple Response Control System thruster, essential for steering Starliner during takeoff from the space station and preparing the critical engine burn for entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
Over the past few weeks, NASA and Boeing ground teams have completed tests of the thrusters on a test stand at White Sands, New Mexico. Then last weekend, Boeing and NASA fired the spacecraft’s thrusters in orbit and confirmed their performance while docked to the space station. NASA says preliminary results from those tests have been encouraging.
Dragons become a realistic option
The last time NASA officials spoke to the media, a week ago, Steve Stich, NASA’s commercial crew program manager, wouldn’t discuss what would happen if the space agency determines Starliner’s thrusters aren’t reliable enough for a return to Earth.
“Our first option is to complete the mission,” Stitch said a week ago. “There are many reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home aboard Starliner. Starliner was designed as a spacecraft, with a crew in the cockpit.”
For a long time, it seemed almost certain that astronauts would return to Earth aboard the Starliner.
However, there has been recent activity from NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX suggesting that Wilmore and Williams may return aboard the Crew Dragon spacecraft rather than the Starliner, and because of the importance of the mission, Ars is reporting what we know as of Thursday afternoon.
One source said there’s a better than 50/50 chance that the crew will return aboard Dragon. Another source said the chances are significantly higher. To be clear, NASA hasn’t made a final decision yet, and probably won’t until at least next week. The decision will likely be made by NASA Deputy Administrator Jim Freeh.
Asked whether the chances of the Starliner crew returning aboard Dragon had increased, NASA spokesman Josh Finch told Ars on Thursday night: “NASA is considering all options to return NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible. No decisions have been made, and NASA will continue to provide updates on its plans.”
Putting the puzzle pieces together
Below are data points that Ars can report with confidence, based on multiple sources.
- NASA continues to delay its decision. The Flight Readiness Review meeting was scheduled for today, August 1, just a few days ago. But it has been canceled. Instead, NASA updated its blog on Thursday, vaguely stating that “Following the completion of Starliner’s return planning, which is expected to continue through next week, more information will be shared about NASA’s Return Readiness Review preparations and a subsequent media briefing.” So the meeting may take place next week.
- On July 14, NASA awarded SpaceX a $266,678 task for a “Special Study for Emergency Response.” NASA said the study is not directly related to the Starliner issues, but two sources told Ars that it is, in fact, relevant. The study included returning more than four crew members aboard Crew Dragon, a scenario linked to the Frank Rubio and Soyuz MS-22 leaks, but the study also allows SpaceX to study returning the Dragon with a standard crew of six passengers in addition to Wilmore and Williams.
- SpaceX has two or Four astronauts will launch aboard Crew 9 (a standard crew size of four). The mission is scheduled to launch on August 18, but may be delayed. SpaceX has already identified flight suits to fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to return aboard either the Crew 8 spacecraft (currently docked at the space station) or Crew 9. It is unclear how the crew will be allocated for the two Dragon return flights. If four astronauts are launched aboard Crew 9, there is a chance that five people could return aboard each of the two Dragons.
- Two sources told Ars that a lively discussion took place at a NASA field center meeting this week about whether to return crew members on Starliner. As of Wednesday, several groups remained “against” Starliner. It’s unclear how the matter will be resolved. Some engineers believe that if there are doubts about Starliner, NASA should take the safe route and fly Crew Dragon, which has been launched safely 13 times and landed 12 times.
The most difficult call
NASA officials are faced with a difficult decision. Because there is still at least a small risk in flying Starliner in its current form, NASA and Boeing tested the thrusters as thoroughly as possible while the spacecraft was docked to the space station. The tests were intended to “mitigate” these risks. But while the data is good, it doesn’t address all of NASA’s concerns.
So what will NASA do? Starliner will probably be able to return to Earth safely. However, there seems to be some doubt as to whether Starliner will return safely. If NASA goes ahead with the alternative, the Dragon flight, the Starliner program may be over. The company has already lost $1.6 billion developing and testing Starliner. Re-flying crew test missions, which would likely be necessary if Starliner returns autonomously, would be even more expensive. Boeing may choose to cancel Starliner, leaving NASA with only one crew carrier. This would be a blow to both NASA and Boeing.
But the alternative — that Starliner not return safely with its crew on board — is far worse. That’s the risk-reward decision that Free, Stich and other NASA officials will ultimately have to balance in the coming days.
This story originally Ars Technica.
