It’s a new problem for the auto industry. “One of the great things about cars is that they move much slower than consumer electronics,” says Phil Amsrud, associate director of automotive at market research firm S&P Global Mobility. That gives automakers and suppliers plenty of time to think about how to support their products and ensure that software will stay up to date and functional for at least 15 years. But “as we try to compress the automotive timeframe to be more consumer-friendly, will that 15 years get compressed to 10, 5 years?” Amsrud says.
Automakers love the idea of the “software-defined vehicle” because it’s a potential entry point into the low-margin, high-profit software business. Customers with cars that can be updated anytime, anywhere. pay Update your car anytime, anywhere.
As a result, automakers can keep selling new services and subscriptions to consumers who have already bought a car, such as hands-free driving systems and perks like remote start and enhanced maps, for as long as the car is on the road. Currently, some car customers pay extra each month for these packaged services, such as General Motors’ OnStar roadside assistance, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (with supervision) and Mercedes’ Me Connect package. But other subscriptions have sparked public backlash, such as BMW’s 2022 model, which charges Korean drivers a monthly fee to turn on heated seats (the automaker eventually dropped the plan).
Max Headroom
The concept of a “software-defined vehicle” requires automakers to build in “headroom” – to ensure that today’s car hardware can accommodate new features tomorrow. The deprecation of connectivity standards is ultimately a decision made by telecommunications companies, not automakers, proving this to be a difficult challenge ahead.
“Despite our best efforts, we have not yet found a solution that meets our standards for 3G vehicle reliability and safety,” Volkswagen spokesman Mark Gillies said in a written statement. Gillies declined to comment further on the solution, citing ongoing litigation, but said the company believes the end of 4G will be after 2035, “which means the majority of our 4G vehicles will have connectivity for at least 10 years.”
Auto industry experts say the industry hasn’t made any firm commitments about how long it will keep updating new, software-enabled cars. And if vehicles can’t be updated long before they’re scrapped, “whoever loses will take a big hit to resale value,” says Philip Koopman, an associate professor who studies transportation software and safety at Carnegie Mellon University.
Ray Cornyn, senior vice president and general manager of automotive processors at Dutch company NXP, one of the auto industry’s most popular suppliers, predicts that the future of automotive software will look a bit like today. “Cars will be defined and designed for a 10- to 15-year lifespan,” he said, noting that support from suppliers such as NXP will continue beyond that 15-year mark. However, the majority of updates will occur between years 5 and 10.
EV maker Rivian markets itself as a software-focused company. Its head of software, Wassym Bensaid, says its solution to obsolescence is conceptually quite simple: The company talks to suppliers about when its hardware will no longer be able to be updated. “Right now, we estimate that the headroom that we’ve planned for our hardware based on what we think is software industry best practice is seven years,” Bensaid says. That means that, while that’s about the lifespan of a smartphone, in practice, Rivian trucks and SUVs sold today may only get software updates until 2031.
But while this is the firmest promise yet from an automaker regarding updates, experts remain skeptical and want more clarity from automakers on when and how they plan to update their vehicles.
“Whatever anyone says now has to be proven,” said Stacey Higginbotham, a policy researcher at Consumer Reports.
