Climate Wire | Scientists have found that climate change has increased the maximum wind speeds of all Atlantic hurricanes this year. All 11 storms intensified between 9 and 45 mph due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.
The additional force pushed seven storms up at least one category higher than they would have been without the effects of climate change. And Hurricanes Debbie and Oscar would have remained tropical cyclones if it weren’t for global warming.
The new analysis was released Wednesday morning by researchers at Climate Central, a climate science and communications nonprofit. This is the latest study to warn of the risk of hurricanes becoming more intense in a warming world.
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“We know that climate change is increasing temperatures around the planet,” said study lead author Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central. “We know that the oceans, especially the Atlantic Ocean, are warming. So we can now estimate what this means for hurricane strength.”
This complete study not only looks at the 2024 season, but also all Atlantic hurricanes from the past five years. From 2019 to 2023, rising ocean temperatures increased wind speeds in five out of six hurricanes, with wind speeds averaging 29 miles per hour. During this period, 30 hurricanes jumped at least one category more than they would have without the effects of climate change.
And in 2024, all Atlantic hurricanes have been strengthened to some degree by rising ocean temperatures.
The analysis also found that some hurricanes reached catastrophic Category 5 status solely due to the effects of climate change. This includes Hurricane Lee in 2019, Ian in 2022, Lorenzo in 2023, and both Milton and Beryl in 2024.
Milton was a particularly noteworthy case, the analysis said. Wind speeds reached 190 miles per hour within 36 hours after passing over waters more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit above typical temperatures. A separate analysis by Climate Central found that such water temperatures are 400 to 800 times more likely to occur due to climate change.
The new study is based on a special type of analysis known as attribution science, which investigates the link between global warming and extreme weather events.
The study combines ground-based observations, statistical analysis, and climate models to compare real-world events to a hypothetical scenario in which human-induced climate change does not exist. This comparative analysis will help scientists determine the extent to which global warming is influencing extreme weather events.
In this case, scientists focused on the effects of warming water. Ocean temperatures are a major factor in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, and research has suggested for decades that hurricanes become more powerful as sea surface temperatures rise.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the total number of hurricanes will increase. However, the proportion of storms that reach major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher will increase over time.
New analysis confirms that’s already happening. Friederike, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution, a climate science consortium dedicated to investigating the links between climate change and extreme weather events around the world. Otto said this confirms the findings of other similar recent studies. world.
She noted that World Weather Attribution conducted a similar analysis earlier this year. This study used a slightly different methodology based on mathematical models to investigate the link between climate change and hurricane wind speeds, with a particular focus on Hurricane Helen.
Otto said the exact numbers were slightly different from Climate Central’s findings, but “they were about the same.”
“This shows that these two very different bodies of evidence point to the same thing,” she added.
A time of unprecedented disaster
It’s not just the wind speed that is increasing.
Studies have shown that climate change could increase hurricane rainfall, making flooding more likely and more damaging. And research shows that during tropical cyclones, water from rainfall and storm surges causes more damage than wind.
However, the overall damage caused by a hurricane, including water-related impacts, increases exponentially as wind speed increases, according to NOAA. This means that storms in higher categories tend to be more damaging and dangerous overall.
All of this supports the importance of research focusing on wind speed, experts say. And it can help scientists better communicate risks to the public, potentially saving lives.
“Is it something to do with the increase in severe hurricanes? Absolutely,” said John Morales, a longtime meteorologist and NBC hurricane expert. “Because these are the ones that are causing the majority of the destruction. And we’ve seen more and more of that in recent years.”
Morales added that one of the new dangers of hurricanes is that they are strengthening faster than before, sometimes building into large storms within hours. This leaves emergency managers with little time to prepare communities and organize evacuations.
He added that the hurricane is intensifying in ways many communities have never seen or seen before.
Hurricane Helen, which carved a path of destruction from Florida to southern Appalachia in September, is a prime example.
An unusually large, powerful, and fast-moving storm, Helen was able to maintain its strength long enough to dump historic levels of rainfall in areas unaccustomed to the severe impacts of tropical cyclones. I did. The storm flooded parts of western North Carolina, cutting off aid and killing hundreds of people.
“When you have an extreme event that people have never experienced before, you end up with a huge death toll,” said Otto, co-founder of World Weather Attribution.
It’s not just a hurricane issue. Scientists have warned that all kinds of extreme weather events, from wildfires to floods, are getting worse as global temperatures rise. And the odds of record or unprecedented events occurring are increasing, meaning communities around the world are increasingly at risk of unprecedented disasters. .
“We’re seeing time and time again records being broken, wind speeds being higher than ever and precipitation being higher than ever,” Otto said. “We really need to leverage that to keep people from dying.”
Scientists and emergency managers are still figuring out how best to communicate the risks of escalating disasters to vulnerable communities. As the tropical cyclone strengthens to record territory, some experts have floated the idea of adding a Category 6 hurricane.
The exact strategy is still being discussed, but increasing communication is key, Otto said.
“It’s about making people realize that something different is coming at them than they’ve ever experienced before,” she says. “So it’s more dangerous.”
Reprinted from E&E News Published with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides news that matters to energy and environment professionals.
