October 10, 2024
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The 2024 election will decide America’s position on immigration and will also impact science and technology.
Both presidential candidates will restrict immigration, but Donald Trump will seek to implement extreme anti-immigrant policies
This article is part of a series about what the 2024 presidential election means for science, health, and the environment. Editors with subject matter expertise have dug deep into candidates’ records and policies, as well as the evidence behind them. Read the rest of the story here.
Immigration is one of the top issues voters care about this election cycle, and in the coming weeks voters will have the opportunity to choose between two candidates who promise very different approaches to the issue. get. The decision to pull the lever for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is an implicit public question of whether to support a tough but relatively moderate approach or one of the most extreme anti-immigrant policies in American history. It’s a vote.
The policy debate continues amid a growing demand for new immigrants to fill a variety of jobs, from caring for an aging population to staffing new semiconductor factories. There is a growing need to grow the workforce at all skill levels in the workplace.
Enacting mass deportations and strengthening the economy
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If implemented, the Trump plan would create virtually insurmountable obstacles to achieving this goal. The former president promised to expel millions of illegal immigrants (and likely other non-citizens) who he baselessly claims are committing crimes, planning to vote illegally, and stealing jobs from Americans. President Trump has promised to carry out “the largest domestic deportation operation in our nation’s history,” a plan that could include building detention camps for people awaiting deportation.
Using the National Guard and local police to round up 11 million illegal immigrants, many of whom have lived in the United States for decades, has even been compared to building concentration camps. President Trump boasted at the Republican National Convention in July that the massive undertaking was bigger than the controversial Eisenhower-era deportation program. The viability of a massive anti-immigrant movement challenges credibility. President Trump’s plan to deport “millions” of people in 2019 achieved little. However, if the government is serious about its second term, it will have a shock effect on the entire economy and society.
“Aside from the coronavirus lockdowns, this will be the most devastating thing to people’s lives,” said Todd Schulte, president of FWD.us, a bipartisan political group focused on immigration and criminal justice reform. . As just one example, without the 283,000 undocumented workers who currently make up 45 percent of the U.S. agricultural workforce, farms across the country would likely be unable to harvest crops or livestock. The cascading economic effects would also cause job losses for Americans. By some estimates, for every 1 million undocumented workers deported, 88,000 Americans will lose their jobs.
Harris said she aims for a more balanced approach based on mainstream politics. She supports bipartisan legislation that would allow restrictive border rules to restrict asylum seekers from passing through Mexico. The influx peaked in December 2023 at around 250,000 “encounters” (expulsions and arrests), but has since declined significantly. This is largely due to the Biden administration’s executive orders limiting immigration rates. Harris’ hardline stance on border security was offset by a pledge to establish a “path to citizenship” for undocumented immigrants already living in the country.
Imposing strong border security while recognizing the value of immigration to the U.S. economy at one time represented a bipartisan status quo on the issue in the United States, until Trump first ran for president in 2015. That situation continued. Doris Meisner, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank that researches and advocates on immigration, said. “What really shows this is that for decades in the Senate, the Democratic side, the late Sen. (Edward) Kennedy, the Republican side, the late Sen. (John) McCain. , has represented leaders of all parties who support immigration in one way or another. And they were able to negotiate and agree to bring their political party with them. ”
A bygone era of cooperation has given way to anti-immigrant fervor, most prominently in the run-up to the 2024 election, when up to 20,000 Haitian legal immigrants living in Springfield, Ohio prey on residents. This was the subject of a grossly false claim by President Trump. pet. These immigrants moved to Rust Belt cities in search of unfilled jobs in newly established companies manufacturing microchips, auto parts, and other products. Trump has promised to begin mass deportations if elected. They have temporary legal status that allows them to continue working in the United States due to turmoil in their home countries, but President Trump wants to lift their “temporary protected status” designation once he returns to office. are.
Need for skilled STEM workers
The vilification of immigrants diverts attention from the need to fill jobs in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that we will need 1 million more STEM workers in 2030 than were needed 10 years ago. The CHIPS and Science Act, passed by Congress with bipartisan support in 2022, commits billions of dollars to reviving the U.S. semiconductor industry. But it is desperately looking for computer scientists, engineers and technicians to staff its chip factories.
Both candidates have expressed support for new measures to encourage legal immigration, but Trump’s record as president has cast doubt on whether his plans will come to fruition. President Trump said on a podcast in June that he would issue “green cards” (documents of U.S. permanent residence) to foreign college graduates from U.S. universities, but his previous tenure suggests that is not the case. . Coveted H-1B visas, typically granted to skilled workers, are already in short supply, with a denial rate reaching 24% in 2018 when President Trump was in office. It fell to 2% in fiscal year 2022 after a court found the administration’s handling of these visas was illegal and a legal settlement was reached, leading to a decline. Additionally, during the 2020 pandemic, President Trump issued a proclamation banning entry to nearly all classes of immigrants. “His administration was filled with people who wanted to make America’s ability to attract and train top talent from around the world much, much more difficult,” Schulte said. Since restrictions were lifted, the increase in foreign-born workers in the workforce has helped drive a healthy economic recovery without displacing jobs from U.S.-born workers.
If Trump returns, the country will likely pick up where he left off on immigration policy. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a policy brief drafted primarily by President Trump’s appointees and staff, calls for eliminating the minimum wage level applicable to people applying for H-1B visas, which “This would exclude most foreign-born graduates from visa requirements.” According to the Niskanen Center, a pro-immigration think tank, job opportunities are available.
Harris’ plan focuses on balancing border security with the need for new workers, an issue she has taken a tougher stance on than when she ran for president in 2020. The current vice president supports a bipartisan immigration bill that died earlier this year after President Trump told Republicans to withdraw support for legislation that would have introduced stricter asylum measures. I am doing it. However, the same law would have also provided for the issuance of 250,000 additional visas over five years, among other measures to encourage legal immigration. Harris also supports Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a policy that protects children brought to the United States by parents who entered the country illegally from deportation.
A lasting and effective approach to immigration requires an overhaul of the system, what policymakers are calling “comprehensive immigration reform.” This would take the form of Congressional legislation regulating the number of people crossing the border, providing a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants, and allowing more immigration to meet the needs of employers. “The 11 million people who are here without legal status, it’s in their and our best interest for them to have legal status, because then they can contribute more fully.” Meissner says. Comprehensive immigration reform has not been implemented for decades, despite several failed attempts.
The momentum to enact such fundamental change will probably not arise for the next four years. But the Harris campaign platform at least acknowledges that “our immigration system is broken and in need of comprehensive reform.” President Trump’s strategy of deporting millions of people would make that even less likely.
