Many places are becoming increasingly uninhabitable. And around a quarter of humanity is already facing drought and associated food insecurity. By 2070, one-fifth of the planet could become unbearably hot for normal human life, displacing up to 3.5 billion people. Sea level rise alone could displace 410 million people worldwide by 2100.
We are poised to witness the largest and fastest migration of people in human history. A new policy framework will be needed. In 2025, we will begin to move from being reactive to being proactive and begin to embrace the urgency of migration in light of climate change.
Not surprisingly, climate-induced migration will hit poor communities and communities of color hardest. Those who have the fewest resources to adapt and have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis will bear the brunt. Consider that Pakistan’s 2022 floods displaced 33 million people and damaged or destroyed 9.4 million acres of farmland. Consider how America’s history of racism increases climate risks. Formerly redlined neighborhoods now face a 25% increase in homes at high flood risk. But no one, no place, is immune. Consider the 2022 European heatwave that killed more than 61,000 people. There, very few people used air conditioning because they didn’t need it. At this rate, humanity will continue to emit greenhouse gases, and this may just be a dry run.
So far, most of the climate change has occurred domestically, but that will need to change as more areas are affected by extreme weather events. Countries with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, such as the Pacific Islands, will be the first to be flooded, so we must recognize the brutal injustices being perpetrated and be vigilant to keep xenophobia at bay. There is.
Where will people go? How will this be managed? One thing is for sure: ignoring the problem will not solve the problem. On the contrary, it creates confusion. At the international, national and local levels, we will begin developing policies that fill current legislative and regulatory gaps, such as restricting housing construction in high-risk areas. As an example, New Jersey acquired approximately 200 property owners in Woodbridge Township, one of the areas most affected by flooding from Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. , decided to ban new construction and development and return the land to nature.
Other efforts and policies include preparing low-risk areas to become host communities for those who must be relocated. In the Pacific Ocean, a region with one of the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in the world, entire countries are at risk of flooding. The nation of Kiribati has already purchased land in Fiji as part of a plan to eventually relocate people if needed due to rising sea levels. In 2023, 18 Pacific Island countries endorsed the Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Change. The framework outlines several priorities, including regional cooperation on cross-border migration to ensure human rights are respected, the development of guidelines in consultation with migrant communities, and the coordination of assistance between States. For migrants who cross borders.
By 2025, people with means will begin to actively migrate at the individual and family level. Already, 11% of Americans are considering moving to avoid the effects of global warming, and about 75% are hesitant to buy a home in areas with high climate risks such as wildfires (ranked in the bottom 48 More than 30 million homes in the state are at risk from warming (at risk from wildfires).
And the insurance market will continue to play an important role in these changes, as more and more high-risk locations become uninsurable. For example, in 2023, the National Flood Insurance Program changed its pricing structure for the first time since its founding in 1968. As a result, the average cost of flood insurance has increased in many locations. In Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, insurance premiums have skyrocketed. That’s an increase of more than 1,000 percent.
By 2025, the previously standard practice of continually rebuilding in the same location after extreme weather events will be widely understood to be unreasonable. People don’t want to leave the communities and ecosystems they love and call home. That’s what they have to do. Cultures and diaspora will begin to change to accept this new reality. Many of them will be faced with tough questions: What does home actually mean in the age of climate breakdown?
