In 2025, there will be a fundamental shift in the language of climate politics. We’ll hear much less from scientists and policymakers about “emissions reductions” and more about “phasing out fossil fuels” and “phasing out coal, oil, and methane gas.” This is good. Although this is scientifically accurate, the term “emissions reduction” is too easily used for greenwashing by the fossil energy industry and its supporters. Meanwhile, the phrase “getting rid of coal, oil and methane gas” continues to focus on the actions that will best help solve the climate crisis.
This shift in discourse began with the latest report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global climate scientists say the fossil energy infrastructure that already exists is projected to emit 2 degrees Celsius more than the total carbon budget needed to stop global warming above pre-industrial levels. This statement means two things. This means the world can’t develop more coal, oil, and gas if we want to keep the planet relatively livable. And this means that even some of the fossil fuel deposits that have already been developed will need to be decommissioned before the end of their lifespan. Because we need to leave space in our carbon budget for important activities such as agriculture.
The international community is already incorporating this new science into global climate governance. The 28th Conference of the Parties, the annual meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, called on all countries to contribute to the “transition away from fossil fuels.” Never before in the history of international climate negotiations have the main causes of global warming been clearly identified and specifically targeted. The United Nations itself is currently calling for the phase-out of coal, oil, and methane gas.
This new climate language will become mainstream in 2025. In her policy plan for her second term as President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen said that instead of working to reduce the EU’s emissions, she would “lower energy prices by moving them further afield.” “We will continue to reduce it,” he promised. From fossil fuels. In its manifesto, Britain’s new government pledged to reserve licenses for new coal and oil exploration and declared a “permanent ban on hydraulic fracturing”. And in France, President Macron has vowed to completely abolish the use of fossil fuels.
Climate politics in the United States will also evolve following Donald Trump’s reelection as president. Republicans will continue to support “drill, baby, drill” climate change policies, denying the dangers and even the reality of climate change while insisting on expanding domestic oil and methane production. They may try to greenwash their policies by claiming to have an “all of the above” energy strategy, but this message will have limited effect. Due to political polarization, Trump’s ties to coal, oil and gas will likely increase Democratic support for phasing out fossil fuels. Before the 2024 election, 59% of Democrats said climate change should be the federal government’s top priority, but only 48% said they supported gradual mitigation. By 2025, a majority of Democrats will begin to support phasing out fossil fuels. In particular, climate change advocates should reinstate science-based climate messaging, continue to emphasize that clean energy deployment is job creation, and create a framework for choosing the phase-out of fossil fuels as a form of freedom. It will be. It upholds our right to a livable future.
Given that Democrats won many down-ballot races and that cities and states remain committed to passing climate change policies, the Democratic Party’s The change in the majority will keep the United States in the spotlight in international climate change negotiations. An agreement to create a new regional alliance with the UK, EU and countries of the Global South seeking international fossil fuel phase-out targets. This bloc could counter the power of petrostates in international climate negotiations. At the very least, mainstreaming the language of phasing out fossil fuels will help undermine the current public relations greenwashing strategies of oil and gas companies. This strategy falsely advertises that the industry is pursuing technologies that will help “reduce emissions” at scale while continuing to operate upstream. investment.
Of course, oil countries, along with India and China, will push back against the rhetoric of phasing out fossil fuels. But India can help exit its domestic coal stockpiles with near-cost clean energy financing, in addition to the international aid and technology transfers it has already committed to at previous climate talks. And while its rhetoric may not match that of the West, China should not be imagined as at odds with climate action. China has enacted the most comprehensive climate policy on earth to achieve its goals of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. If China’s climate message continues to focus on “emissions,” given its plans to continue using fossil fuels, which it plans to stop using after 2030, they have made a truly staggering By building clean energy at a rapid pace, we are preparing for the next decade’s transition away from fossil fuels.
In 2025, the climate debate will refocus on the message that stopping global warming requires phasing out coal, oil and gas. This new agreement will help transform climate change policy and spur an urgent commitment to a clean energy, ecologically integrated economy, the only economy that guarantees a livable future.
