December 11, 2024
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The rapidly warming Arctic looks dramatically different than it did 20 years ago
Rising temperatures, increased precipitation, thawing permafrost, and melting ice are causing the Arctic to deviate from historical norms.
Aerial view of icebergs and ice sheets in Baffin Bay near Pitufik, Greenland on July 19, 2022. This photo was taken by a NASA Gulfstream V aircraft during an airborne mission to measure the melting of Arctic sea ice.
Kerem Yucel/AFP/Getty Images
Climate wire | The Arctic continued its relentless transformation in 2024, experiencing its wettest summer, second-warmest permafrost temperatures, and second-hottest year on record.
This is a continuation of a long-term pattern and the latest evidence that the Arctic has moved into a new state, according to the latest edition of NOAA’s annual Arctic Report Card. Temperatures, precipitation patterns, ice melt, permafrost, and other factors exceed historical norms for the region. Change is constant.
“The Arctic now exists in a new regime, and the situation is much different year by year than it was decades ago,” said Twila, a scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and lead editor of the report. Mr Moon said: The findings were announced at a press conference on Tuesday. “But climate change is not bringing about a new normal. Rather, climate change is bringing about continuous and rapid change.”
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The Arctic Report Card, published annually since 2006, regularly records the evolution of the Arctic. The first article warned about melting sea ice and thawing permafrost, pointing to “hotspots” across the region. Concerns also arose about the stability of the Greenland ice sheet, whose exact melting rate was still uncertain at the time.
Almost two decades later, research shows the Arctic is warming at least three times faster than the global average. Sea ice continues to decline rapidly, while permafrost is thawing in large areas of Alaska, Canada, and Siberia. Wildfires are on the rise. And scientists have confirmed that the Greenland ice sheet is losing tens of billions of tons of ice every year.
“An important starting point for the Arctic Report Card is to recognize that anthropogenic global warming is amplified in the Arctic,” Moon said. “The Arctic continues to warm faster than the entire planet, and the past nine years in the Arctic have been the warmest nine years on record.”
It’s not like every year is a record breaker. Last year had the sixth lowest minimum sea ice extent. This summer was the second hottest on record after 2023. Permafrost temperatures were also at the second warmest level.
Meanwhile, Greenland experienced its lowest level of mass loss since 2013. Snowfall was also above average across Eurasia and the North American Arctic.
However, all these factors are still consistent with the long-term pattern of change that the Arctic has seen in recent decades. Although we don’t set new record highs every year, temperatures are rising rapidly. Sea ice is steadily decreasing. And the Greenland ice sheet has contributed to global sea level rise for 27 consecutive years.
Meanwhile, several records were broken in 2024 as well.
The August heatwave broke daily temperature records in some communities in Alaska and Canada. Summer precipitation was the highest on record. And even though snowfall was above normal in many places, parts of central and eastern Canada’s Arctic experienced the shortest snow season in at least 26 years. This is primarily due to a combination of warmer temperatures causing snow to start falling later in the fall and melting earlier in the spring.
The new report notes that wildlife populations will also be affected, but not necessarily in the same way.
Ice seal populations in most of the Arctic remain generally healthy. This is despite the fact that Arctic cod, historically their preferred food source, is in decline as temperatures rise. Instead, research suggests that ice seals have turned to preying on saffron cod. Saffron cod prefer warm water and are expected to increase in numbers in the coming years.
That’s a good sign for ice seals, said Lori Quekenbush, a scientist and marine mammal expert with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
“Ice seals are highly adapted to declining sea ice, but we have yet to find evidence that their adaptive capacity is limited by current ecological changes,” she said.
Caribou, on the other hand, aren’t faring so well. The migratory tundra caribou population has declined by 65 percent over the past 20 to 30 years, from a peak of 5.5 million in the 1990s and 2000s to 1.8 million. While some small coastal herds have shown signs of recovery over the past decade, larger inland herds are rapidly declining.
This is also a result of rising temperatures, the report says. Warmer winter weather increases the chance of freezing rain, which can cover the vegetation that caribou rely on for food.
These declines are of great concern to many indigenous communities across the Arctic.
“The decline of caribou is a significant concern for local people, whose food security has been tied to caribou since time immemorial,” Quackenbush said.
Scientists say the new report card highlights the continued need for rapid global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
“We can hope that many plants and animals will find a way to adapt, as ice seals have so far, but hope is not a path to preparedness or risk mitigation,” Moon said. “Nearly all anthropogenic heat-trapping emissions originate outside the Arctic, so only strong action to reduce these emissions will minimize risk and damage as far as possible into the future. This also applies to the North Pole and the Earth.”
Reprinted from E&E News Published with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides news that matters to energy and environment professionals.
