Solar power is growing extremely fast, but in absolute terms, the use of natural gas in electricity production continues to outpace renewables. That’s likely to change in 2024, however. Looking at numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the first half of the year, it found that wind, solar, and batteries were each installed at a much faster rate than new natural gas generators. And the gap is expected to widen dramatically before the year is out.
Solar power and batteries grow rapidly
According to EIA figures, about 20 gigawatts of new capacity was added in the first half of this year, with solar power accounting for 60 percent of that. More than a third of the solar additions occurred in just two states: Texas and Florida. Two projects have come online and are rated at more than 600 megawatts of capacity: one in Texas and the other in Nevada.
Next up: batteries. During this period, the US added 4.2 gigawatts of battery capacity, representing more than 20 percent of total new capacity. (The EIA considers batteries to be equivalent to generating sources because they can send power to the grid on demand, if not continuously.) Texas and California alone accounted for more than 60 percent of this growth; Arizona and Nevada together account for 93 percent of installed capacity.
The clear pattern here is that batteries are being installed where there is solar, so that electricity generated during peak hours during the day can be used to meet demand after the sun goes down. This allows existing solar plants to avoid having to curtail electricity production during low demand periods in the spring and fall. This in turn improves the economics of installing additional solar in states where production regularly exceeds demand.
In contrast, wind power is coming on line at a more modest pace, with just 2.5 GW of new capacity in the first six months of 2024. And additional nuclear power, likely for the last time this decade, was brought onto the grid with a fourth 1.1 GW reactor at the Vogtle Site in Georgia (the second recently built). Other additions came from natural gas-fired facilities, but these totaled just 400 MW, just 2% of total new capacity.
The EIA also forecasts capacity additions through the end of 2024 based on projects currently underway, leaving the overall picture unchanged. However, the pace of installations will pick up as developers rush to get projects up and running within the current tax year. The EIA expects just over 60 GW of new capacity to be installed by the end of the year, with 37 GW of that in the form of solar PV. Battery growth continues at a ferocious pace, with 15 GW expected, roughly a quarter of this year’s total capacity additions.
Wind power will account for 7.1 GW of new capacity, and natural gas for 2.6 GW. Adding in the contribution of nuclear power, 96 percent of the capacity added in 2024 is expected to operate without carbon emissions. Even if we ignore battery additions, the share of carbon-emitting capacity added remains quite small at 6 percent.
Gradual change in the grid
Needless to say, these figures represent the peak production of these energy sources. In the United States, solar power produces about 25% of its rated capacity and wind power about 35% throughout the year. The former figure is likely to decrease over time as solar power becomes cheap enough to make economic sense in less sunny regions. In contrast, wind power utilization is likely to increase as more offshore wind farms are completed. As for natural gas, many of the new plants are designed to run erratically so that they can provide power when renewable energy production is insufficient.
To get a clearer picture of what’s happening, look at the sources of electricity generation that are being retired: In the United States, 5.1 GW of generating capacity disappeared from the grid in the first half of 2024, all of which was from fossil fuels, excluding 0.2 GW of “other,” including 2.1 GW from coal and 2.7 GW from natural gas, including a large 1.4 GW natural gas plant in Massachusetts.
