August 13, 2024
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U.S. wind and solar power set to overtake coal this year
Two renewable sources, wind and solar, combined produced more electricity than coal through July, a first in the United States.
Wind turbines spin near a row of solar panels in the California desert.
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Privacy Policy Wind and solar generated more electricity than coal in the first seven months of the year, a first for any renewable source, according to federal data.
The milestone had been long expected, driven by a wave of coal plant closures and rapid growth in wind and solar power, which outpaced coal until May last year, when the fossil fuel eventually overtook both as electricity demand surged in the summer.
But the latest figures show that wind and solar are on track to overtake coal-fired power generation for the entire calendar year in 2024, as renewable sources maintain their dominance through the heat of July. Coal-fired power generation typically declines in the spring due to lower electricity demand and seasonal power plant maintenance, then rises as electricity demand increases in the summer.
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Renewable energy growth has been driven by a surge in solar power generation over the past year. According to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 118 terawatt-hours were generated by utility-scale solar power facilities through the end of July, up 36% from the same period last year. Wind power generation was 275 TWh, up 8% from 2023 levels. Total renewable energy production was 393 TWh, surpassing coal generation at 388 TWh.
“I think this is a critical juncture,” said Rick O’Connell, president of clean-power consulting firm GridLab. “We’re seeing a surge in solar and a decline in coal, and I think a dividing line is being crossed.”
The EIA had previously reported that renewable generation would surpass coal in 2020 and 2022, and would repeat that record in 2023. But those figures included other sources, such as hydroelectric power. Now, wind and solar are on track to overtake coal on their own. The two accounted for 16% of U.S. electricity generation through July, slightly surpassing coal’s share of the electricity generation market.
The move comes at a time when grid reliability is under scrutiny as demand for electricity increases due to developments in artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as more frequent and intense heat waves that increase air-conditioning use. Electricity demand for the first seven months of the year rose 4% to 2,436 TWh by the end of July, according to EIA statistics.
Rising demand is a boon for generators. Nuclear generation stood at 459 TWh through July, up 3%, thanks in part to two new reactors that began operating in Georgia last year. Hydroelectric generation rose 1% to 159 TWh. Gas has been particularly important in supplying the extra demand, rising 5% over 2023 to 987 TWh.
Mark Repsher, an analyst who tracks the power industry at PA Consulting Group, said those numbers point to a larger challenge facing the grid. Meeting demand will require adding power plants that can run with the flip of a switch, he said. The question is whether that will come from natural gas or zero-carbon sources like nuclear or geothermal.
“Renewables will continue to be a big part of this industry, but I think there will come a tipping point where each extra megawatt hour of renewable energy becomes less valuable than other options,” he said.
Others are less convinced. Texas’ rapid growth in wind, solar and batteries shows that renewables can be built out quickly and stabilize the grid, O’Connell said. The state is “getting through a tough summer” thanks to record wind, solar and battery output, he said.
Coal may still fare better than wind and solar in the five months to 2024. But renewables are likely to overtake the power sector’s former champions sooner rather than later.
The last coal-fired power plant built on US soil began operations in 2013. Over the next decade, US coal-fired generating capacity fell by 38%.
Meanwhile, renewable energy is booming. The U.S. installed about 12 gigawatts of solar power through June, meaning with six months left in 2024, it’s already the third-best year for U.S. solar power installations. Another 25GW is expected to come online this year, according to the EIA. Wind added 2.5GW through June, and another 4.5GW is on track to be installed by the end of the year.
One piece of good news for the coal industry is that power plant retirements are on track to hit the lowest level in 13 years: The EIA projects that 3.2 GW of coal plants will retire this year, the lowest annual number of closures since 2011 and less than the 9.5 GW of coal plants that closed last year.
Reprinted from E&E News Posted with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News delivers news that matters to energy and environmental professionals.
