November 8, 2024
5 minimum read
What President Trump can and probably can’t do to reverse U.S. climate change policy
The next new president can do more than simply withdraw from the Paris Agreement. But clean energy policies may be harder to reverse
In 2019, then-President Donald Trump visited a liquid natural gas facility in Hackberry, Louisiana.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
The following essay is reproduced with permission. 
The Conversation is an online publication covering the latest research.
As the United States prepares for the incoming Trump administration, one area of focus for the president-elect is climate policy.
Although he has not announced a formal climate change agenda, Donald Trump’s strategy during his final term in the Oval Office and his frequent complaints about clean energy offer clues about what’s to come. I am doing it.
About supporting science journalism
If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting our award-winning journalism. Currently subscribing. By subscribing, you help ensure future generations of influential stories about the discoveries and ideas that shape the world today.
Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement
In 2017, less than six months into his first term as president, Trump formally announced that he would withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accord. The agreement is a 2015 international agreement signed by nearly all countries as a pledge to work to limit rising temperatures and other climate impacts. Check change.
The bigger, but underappreciated, risk this time around is that President Trump will not stay in the Paris Agreement.
In addition to re-withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, President Trump may attempt to withdraw the United States from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 1992 Convention is the cornerstone of international climate negotiations. Withdrawing from this treaty would make it nearly impossible for future governments to rejoin the UNFCCC Convention. That’s because doing so would require the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.
The repercussions of such a step will be felt all over the world. Although the Paris Agreement is not legally binding and is based on trust and leadership, the stance taken by the world’s largest economy influences the actions of other countries.
It would also hand climate leadership to China.
U.S. funding to help other countries expand clean energy and adapt to climate change has increased significantly under the Biden administration. The first US International Climate Finance Plan provided US$11 billion to support emerging and developing countries in 2024. Commitments from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation also jumped from $12 billion during the four years of the Trump administration to nearly $14 billion in Biden’s first two years in office. Biden also pledged $3 billion to the United Nations Green Climate Fund.
Under President Trump, all of these efforts are likely to be scaled back again.
Targeting clean energy may not be so easy
But Trump may not be as successful in other areas.
He has been vocal about rolling back clean energy policies. But it may be difficult for him to rule out the Biden administration’s massive investments in clean energy, which are factored into much-needed infrastructure and manufacturing investments in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Anti-Inflation Act. do not have.
Both laws were passed by Congress, so President Trump would need a majority in both chambers to repeal them.
Even if Republicans end up in a triumvirate, controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, repealing these laws will be difficult. That’s because the law’s benefits flow heavily to red states. Trump’s allies in the oil and gas industry also benefit from the law’s tax credits for carbon capture, advanced biofuels, and hydrogen.
But while inflation control laws may not be repealed, they will almost certainly be adjusted. Tax credits for consumers who purchase electric vehicles pose significant hurdles, just as EPA regulations tighten standards for tailpipe pollution, making battery-powered vehicles uneconomical for many people. is likely to have been reached.
President Trump could also slow down operations at the Department of Energy’s Office of Loan Programs, which has helped boost several clean energy industries. Again, this is not surprising. He did it in the first period. The impact will be even greater given that the office’s lending capacity has since ballooned to more than $200 billion, thanks to the Inflation Control Act. So far, only about a quarter of the total amount has been donated, so there is an urgent need to accelerate the pace of donations ahead of the inauguration of the new government in January.
Drill, baby, drill?
President Trump has also talked about increasing fossil fuel production and is almost certain to take steps to revitalize the fossil fuel industry, such as deregulation and opening up more federal land for drilling. But the prospects for a significant increase in oil and gas production look bleak.
The United States already produces more oil than any other country in history. Oil and gas companies are buying back their own shares and paying dividends to shareholders at a record pace, but they might not do so if they see better investment opportunities.
The futures curve indicates that oil prices will decline in the future, and if President Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on all imports, the resulting economic downturn will further weigh on demand slowdowns, leading to lower profits. may lead to risks.
President Trump will likely seek to roll back climate policies related to fossil fuels and emissions, the main drivers of climate change, as he did dozens of policies during his first administration.
This includes eliminating a new federal tax on methane emissions from certain facilities, marking the first time the U.S. government has imposed a fee or tax on greenhouse gas emissions. Methane is the main component of natural gas and is a powerful greenhouse gas.
President Trump also pledged to support approval of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, but the Biden administration has sought to suspend and is still trying to slow those approvals.
The market has a say in the future of clean energy
One source of clean energy that President Trump is likely to rally support for is nuclear power.
And despite his criticism of wind and solar power, market trends remain strong, especially as onshore wind and utility-scale solar projects have become more cost-effective than coal and gas. As a result, investment in renewable energy is likely to continue to increase.
Nevertheless, the pace of investment is likely to slow due to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and regulatory and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. The expected inflationary impact of his economic policies is likely to offset the expected benefit from lower cost of capital as central banks cut interest rates this year. This is an intolerable outcome for a warming planet.
This article was first published conversation. please read original article.
