Climate wire | President Joe Biden announced Thursday that he would strengthen U.S. climate change goals, aiming to cut pollution from global warming by 61 to 66 percent by 2035, a move certain to be ignored by his successor. is.
The new goal is higher than Biden’s 2021 pledge to cut greenhouse gases by 50-52% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, but it also looms large over a future in which he takes aggressive action to limit rising temperatures. This is a downward revision from the goal that modelers say would have been achievable under President Trump.
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his opposition.
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Rather, the goal is likely to be abandoned after Trump takes office, reflecting his pledge to expand fossil fuel production and dismantle Biden’s climate change policies.
While the goal could be ignored by the next administration, it provides an aspirational benchmark that states, cities and businesses can aspire to meet even as President Trump seeks to roll back federal climate programs.
“President Biden’s new 2035 climate change goals are a testament to what we have already achieved and what we believe the United States can and should achieve in the future,” said John Podesta, White House senior advisor for international climate policy. “It reflects both of the things that we do.” Call a reporter.
The move comes amid mounting pressure on the Biden administration to make urgent environmental commitments as the president’s term draws to a close, even if Trump has no intention of honoring them. U.S. officials say this sends an important signal to the world about what the United States can do in the face of these challenges.
“American industry will continue to invent and invest. State, local and tribal governments will continue to step up,” Biden said in pre-recorded video comments leading up to the announcement.
It also includes at least a 35% reduction in methane, a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas that the Biden administration has prioritized addressing through regulations and global agreements.
“We look to governors, mayors, business leaders and others to advance this important work,” Podesta said.
The targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are mandated under the Paris Agreement, a global deal to limit post-industrial warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The White House announced that it will formally submit the new goals to the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat. President Trump is expected to withdraw from the agreement.
“Polaris”
Observers argued the new goals demonstrate the world’s largest economy’s ability to tackle climate change without federal aid.
“The 2035 climate goal could be the North Star for states, cities and businesses working to combat climate change,” Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.
Other advocates echoed this sentiment, saying it could guide federal policy in 2028 and beyond, or whenever a climate-focused president takes office.
“The 2035 emissions reduction target is on the lower end of what science requires, but near the upper end of what is realistic if nearly all available policy tools are taken into account,” the World Economic Institute said. said Debbie Weil, acting director. Resource Research Institute.
A fact sheet released with the announcement said climate pollution reductions can be achieved through a combination of policies that survive the Biden era. Strengthening national and local action. and technological advances such as cheaper wind and solar energy, nuclear power generation, and grid upgrades.
However, reaching these goals is not easy.
Bipartisan efforts in Congress to loosen permitting rules that could encourage the installation of renewable energy have been unsuccessful. The Biden administration on Wednesday approved California’s plan to phase out gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035, but President Trump threatened to rescind the plan.
Members of the U.S. Climate Alliance, a coalition of mostly Democratic states, plan to cut greenhouse gases by 26 to 28 percent by next year, but the U.S. will cut emissions by half five years from now. Biden is off track to achieve his original goal.
“No one is hiding the ball in that. Our analysis makes it very clear that additional action is needed to meet the 2030 goal, but there is a clear path to doing so.” said Casey Katims, executive director of the alliance.
Achieving the new goals will also depend on investment from the private sector. The Clean Energy Tax Cut in Biden’s signature climate law, the Cut the Inflation Act, pumps billions of dollars into clean energy production across the United States.
But many of these policies are being threatened by President Trump and Republicans in Congress, who have targeted government rebates used to lower the cost of purchasing electric vehicles and other clean energy incentives.
“Even discussions of repeal, adjustment, or reduction can have a chilling effect, slowing and reducing the pace and scale of investment,” said Zach Friedman, senior director of federal policy at the business sustainability group Ceres. Ta. “Adjustments to tax credits, schedules, limits, etc. have a significant impact on the amount of investment that returns to American society.”
Aiming high
Before the election, modeling from the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability showed the United States could achieve emissions reductions of 65 to 67 percent by 2035. Studies from other groups showed similar ranges.
That would put the country on track to achieve zero emissions by 2050. But achieving that goal will require additional action at the federal, state, and city levels.
The latest policy brief released this week by the Center for Global Sustainability envisions cuts of 54 to 62 percent based on additional actions at the state level, with no further action by the federal government.
Government officials who spoke by phone with reporters to preview the announcement said the analysis shows it is possible to reduce pollution without aggressive federal action. But he admitted it was more difficult.
One source said, “Of course the pace is an issue.”
“Achieving the proposed goals will require states to strengthen their policies at levels never seen before and require many states to implement policies,” said Robbie Orbis, senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation. There will definitely be a need to communicate that.”
Other analyzes considered several potential worst-case scenarios.
Energy Innovation estimates that U.S. emissions would fall by just 36% by 2035 if inflation control laws were completely repealed. Rhodium Group predicted cuts in the range of 24 to 40 percent based on the rollback of federal climate regulations and the complete repeal of anti-inflation laws. Neither analysis takes into account additional actions at the state level.
Analysts say the anti-inflation law is unlikely to be completely unraveled, especially since its benefits are being expanded across the country.
But even with the Inflation Control Act, the U.S. still falls short of Biden’s original goal of cutting emissions by 50 to 52 percent in 2030. A July analysis by the Rhodium Group puts the U.S. on track to reduce climate pollution by 32 to 43 percent by 2030 and 38 to 56 percent by 2035. It turned out that.
Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the environmental think tank E3G, said Mr. Biden is “setting the flag” on the new goal.
“We all understand that this goal will be very difficult to achieve given that President Trump will take us off the field for the next four years,” Meyer said. “But they understand what it is and what the United States should do.”
Reprinted from E&E News Published with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides news that matters to energy and environment professionals.
