US voters will decide the future direction of climate change in 2024, the hottest year on record

In the hottest year on record, U.S. voters intention Determining the future direction of climate change

andrea thompson

As the US faces one of the most consequential climate elections in history, one of NASA’s top climate scientists has warned that 2024 is “almost certain” to be the hottest year on record. are. If so, it would shatter the remarkable record set just last year and restore humanity to the path it has set for itself.

The consequences of our choice to continue burning fossil fuels that release heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere will exceed these temperature records. They have become increasingly evident in the devastating heat waves, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events that have claimed hundreds of lives and billions of dollars in the United States alone this year. They are experiencing more subtle changes in climate that affect crop yields and food prices and result in worsening health for millions of people.

Thousands of climate science studies have made clear that unless we begin to rapidly and dramatically reduce emissions, those impacts will only get worse in future generations. The next presidential election will be an extremely important point for the United States. The presidential election will decide whether the country continues with the massive climate action initiated by the Biden-Harris administration that could lead to significant emissions cuts. Given former President Donald Trump’s likely re-election, he would encourage unfettered fossil fuel production with little or no guardrails on emissions.

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Global temperature data collected through the end of September suggests that 2024 could be nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average global temperature from 1850 to 1900. That period is often referred to as the pre-industrial era, the point in time before the burning of coal, oil, and other fossil fuels began to accumulate large amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries agreed to strive to limit temperature rise to a threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

According to NASA calculations, 2023 was 1.36 °C (2.45 °F) hotter than before the industrial revolution, earning it the title of hottest year on record by a record margin. Gavin A. Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said that based on temperatures through the end of September 2024 and statistical models, the Earth’s average surface temperature for all of 2024 will be more or less below pre-industrial levels. It was calculated that the temperature would rise by 1.5℃. That may not sound like a huge increase, but annual temperature records are typically set to the nearest hundredth of a degree, and it would take an enormous amount of heat to raise global temperatures this much. It will be.

The Met Office previously predicted that there would be at least one year between 2023 and 2027 when global temperatures would exceed 1.5C. One year does not mean the goals of the Paris Agreement have been violated, as they are thought to apply to global climate change. It’s an average for several years, but it shows that the world is on the verge of surpassing it.

Climate scientists say almost all of the temperature records from last year and this year are the result of continued rises in levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that CO:₂ In 2023, it reached a record high of 420 ppm. “These are not just statistics. A temperature increase of one millionth and one degree Celsius has real consequences for our lives and our planet,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Sauro said in a recent statement.

Last year, the El Niño phenomenon, which occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes hotter than usual, had a cascading effect on global weather, but as usual it caused a slight increase in global temperatures. I did. Temperatures have also increased slightly this year, as the effects of this cyclical natural climate phenomenon tend to lag the event by several months.

In a series of posts on social media site Blue Sky, Schmidt said that when his predecessor, James Hansen, testified before Congress about the dangers of climate change in 1988 (when carbon dioxide levels were 351 ppm), He pointed out that 2017 was the hottest year. On record. Hansen said in his testimony that the evidence “I think shows very strong evidence that the greenhouse effect has been detected and that it is changing our climate today.”

Currently, 1988 ranks as the 31st hottest year.

Every year in the 21st century has been hotter than 1988. In fact, each decade since then has been hotter than the year before. There is no doubt that the records set this year will be broken in the not too distant future.

But a body of climate science research that has long highlighted the threats we face also reveals that we are not doomed to be hot forever and that we can choose what our future climate will look like. I am. As Andrew Dessler, a climatologist at Texas A&M University, recently blogged, we know that stopping greenhouse gas emissions will also stop the planet from warming. And we basically have the technology, especially in the form of renewable energy and battery storage, to eliminate the need for fossil fuels, he added. The main hurdle is political. That means that the vote we cast in elections, especially this one, is one of the important choices we make for that future.